Canadian Bioceutical has 91% upside, Echelon Wealth says

This morning, Canadian Bioceutical reported its Q1, 2018 results. The company lost $790,575 on revenue of $5.1-million, a topline that was up 14 per cent over the same period a year earlier.

“We recorded a solid quarter with double-digit sequential revenue growth, driven by strong sales of high-margin concentrates,” CEO Scott Boyes said. “At the same time, we continued to execute on our aggressive expansion strategy. We are developing a new dispensary in the Greater Phoenix Area, which we anticipate to be operational by late November of this year. Development of our assets in Massachusetts is progressing well, and we anticipate cultivation to commence in the second calendar quarter of 2018, with up to three dispensaries to open the following quarter. Additionally, we continue to make good progress on the other potential acquisitions and anticipate completing several of these shortly. Once all initiatives have been developed, we aim to have a total of 10 dispensaries through four states, nine million grams per annum in cultivation and 1.2 million grams per annum in concentrates production capacity. We believe this will generate significant additional firepower to fuel further expansion, especially in combination with our proven access to capital. Finally, our joint venture with Panaxia provides important product differentiation into the pharma-grade products segment, unlocking new avenues to pursue revenue and margin growth.”

Stanley notes that Canadian Bioceutical EBITDA of $100,000 on revenue of $5.1-million beat his expectation of an EBITDA loss of $400,000 on a topline of $4.7-million. The analyst says this was a boost to a stock that had looked weak of late.

“As of writing, the stock is up 15% today following last night’s release of Q118 results that we view positively, both for the performance itself, as well as derisking the stock from a financial reporting perspective,” the analyst says. “Management can now focus on its acquisition and organic growth plans, and we expect the Nevada acquisition to close in the very near term.”

In a research update to clients today, Stanley maintained his “Speculative Buy” rating and one-year price target of $0.65 on Canadian Bioceutical, implying a return of 91 per cent at the time of publication.

Stanley thinks Canadian Bioceutical will generate Adjusted EBITDA of $600,000 on revenue of $26.5-million in fiscal 2018. He expects those numbers will improve to EBITDA of $11.3-million on a topline of $47.8-million the following year.

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